Financial analysts and the financial media often refer to U.S. Treasury bonds (T-bonds) as risk-free investments. And it's true. The United States government has never defaulted on a debt or missed a payment on a debt. You would have to envision the utter collapse of the government to find a scenario that would involve losing any of the principal invested in a T-bond.
Key Takeaways
- There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in T-bonds.
- There is a risk that you could have earned better money elsewhere.
- Investing decisions are always a tradeoff between risk and reward.
The crucial word above is "principal." In investing, the safest investments have the lowest returns. And accepting a low return is in itself a risky decision.
Understanding U.S. Treasury Bond Risk
Most investments in debt, from corporate bonds to mortgage-backed securities, carry some degree of default risk. The investor accepts the risk that the borrower will be unable to keep up the interest payments or return the principal invested.
In the event of bankruptcy, bondholders are first in line before other investors, but that's no guarantee of full repayment.
This is not true for T-bonds, which are backed by "the full faith and credit" of the U.S. government. That means the Federal Reserve. Investors know that the Treasury Department will pay them back even if the Fed's balance sheet is ugly.
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
Inflation
Every economy experiences inflation from time to time, to one degree or another. T-bonds have a low yield, or return on investment. A little bit of inflation can erase that return, and a little more can effectively eat into your savings.
That is, an investment of $1,000 in a T-bond for one year at 1% interest would get you $1,010. But if inflation was 2%, the initial investment when it is returned will have the buying power of a little under $990.
Interest Rate Risk
When interest rates rise, the market value of debt securities tends to drop. This makes it difficult for the bond investor to sell a T-bond without losing on the investment.
Opportunity Costs
All financial decisions, even T-bond investments, carry opportunity costs.
An investor who purchases a $1,000 T-bond loses the chance to invest or spend that $1,000 elsewhere. The investor might have been better off putting $1,000 into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that offered a greater potential for return along with a greater risk of principal loss. For that matter, the investor might have bought a new laptop for $1,000. If inflation continues at its current pace, that model will cost $1,025 a year from now.
FAQs
While Treasury bonds are relatively safe investments, one key risk is that inflation will erode your returns over the years. When you get the bond's face value back, it won't have the same purchasing power that it did 20 or 30 years earlier.
What are the risks of investing in Treasury bonds? ›
But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered. If you're interested in investing in Treasury bonds or have other questions about your portfolio, consider speaking with a financial advisor.
What is the disadvantage of investing in Treasury bills? ›
However, should interest rates rise, the existing T-bills fall out of favor since their return is less than the market. For this reason, T-bills have interest rate risk, which means there is a danger that bondholders might lose out should there be higher rates in the future.
What are the two greatest risks for the owners of Treasury securities? ›
Like all guaranteed financial instruments, Treasuries are vulnerable to both inflation and changes in interest rates.
What is the biggest risk in bond investing? ›
These are the risks of holding bonds:
- Risk #1: When interest rates fall, bond prices rise.
- Risk #2: Having to reinvest proceeds at a lower rate than what the funds were previously earning.
- Risk #3: When inflation increases dramatically, bonds can have a negative rate of return.
So, the risks to investing in T-bonds are opportunity risks. That is, the investor might have gotten a better return elsewhere, and only time will tell. The dangers lie in three areas: inflation, interest rate risk, and opportunity costs.
What are the disadvantages of Treasury I bonds? ›
The initial yield is only good for the first six months you own the bond. After that, the investment acts like any other variable vehicle, meaning rates could go down and you have no control over it. And if you wait until, say, 2026 to buy an I bond, the initial rate could be well below current levels.
Are Treasury bonds a good investment now? ›
Are Treasury bonds a good investment? Generally, yes, but that depends on your investing goals, your risk tolerance and your portfolio's makeup. With investing, in many cases, the higher the risk, the higher the potential return.
What are the key risks in the Treasury? ›
Examples of treasury risks include interest rate risk, currency risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk. These risks can cause financial losses or negative impacts when managing an organization's cash and financial assets.
Can you lose money buying US treasuries? ›
However, CDs and Treasuries are fixed income investments and subject to similar risks as other fixed income investments. For example, if interest rates rise, the price of a CD or Treasury will fall and if you need the investment prior to maturity and have to sell it, you may lose money.
You can lose money on a bond if you sell it for less than you paid or the issuer defaults on their payments. When you buy or sell a bond, the commission is built into its price. The investment firm marks up the price of the bond slightly to cover the costs of selling the bond.
Why are bonds not a good investment? ›
Both the level and volatility of inflation are important for how stocks and bonds co-move. Until inflation is both lower and more stable, we may remain in an environment in which bonds are a less consistent hedge of equity risk.
Should you buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Is investing in Treasury bonds a good idea? ›
While Treasury bonds don't have a serious risk that the government won't pay you back, they do have two other risks that are typical of bonds: inflation risk and interest rate risk. While Treasury bonds are relatively safe investments, one key risk is that inflation will erode your returns over the years.
Are Treasury bonds safe during a market crash? ›
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
How much is a $100 savings bond worth after 30 years? ›
How to get the most value from your savings bonds
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Treasury securities, including Treasury bills, also known as T-bills, offer higher APYs than many other savings options right now. And Treasury securities are among the safest places to put your money because they are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government.
